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TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 3, 2026 / ELECTION MORNING
The people have entered the record
Courtrooms. Competitive Senate races. More than fifty million early ballots. A Virgo ♍︎ Moon ☽︎, a Scorpio ♏︎ Mercury ☿︎ retrograde, and the living architecture of accountability.
5:55 AM EST / 10:55 UTC / Washington, DC reference chart. This is a dated morning edition, not live election returns.
Download the original Election Morning Atlas PDF
Astrology Now
November 3, 2026 / The Small Thing Running the Whole Damn Show
Today’s astrology through the Living Sovereign Decan System, with the Three Points of Repair spread and the Ritual of Useful Repair.
Your election morning route
Morning letter · News desk · Polls and turnout · The full sky · As Above, So Below · Astrological clock · Companion essay · Sources · 68 races
MORNING LETTER / NOVEMBER 3
THE PEOPLE HAVE ENTERED THE RECORD
An election is not a television performance. It is millions of individual choices.
Good morning, Agents of Chaos. Samhain is behind us, the campaigns have reached their final arguments, and America is standing at the threshold of the November 3 midterms. The weekend gave us a remarkable collision of judicial decisions, volatile Senate contests and more early ballots than anyone could reasonably count over breakfast. I keep coming back to one extraordinary fact: people are participating, and their choices now have to move through the machinery of law.
The Supreme Court refused the administration’s emergency request to separate approximately 20,000 California ballots on Monday. In Alaska, a judge dismissed a certification lawsuit. In another California proceeding, election workers received temporary protection from coercive federal demands. These are different cases with different factual records, but they share an essential question about the lawful boundaries of government authority.
The national polling shows discontent with the direction of the country, and fresh state surveys have made Senate control more competitive than it appeared earlier in the year. The races remain local, even when national politicians attempt to claim every outcome as a referendum on themselves. Today begins the work of turning every legal ballot into an official public result.
There is no requirement that hope be naive. Hope can be informed, organized, patient and exceptionally good at keeping receipts. That is the spirit of this morning Atlas. We will follow what is written, distinguish a promise from a vote count, and remember that public institutions answer, in the end, to the people who sustain them.
SUPREME COURT / NOV 2 · REUTERS IPSOS / NOV 2 · EARLY VOTE / NOV 3
LEAD STORY / HIGH COURT
THE SUPREME COURT DECLINED THE EMERGENCY BID
The administration sought to separate around 20,000 California ballots.
On November 2, the Supreme Court denied the Justice Department’s emergency application asking that California election officials set aside mail ballots linked to approximately 20,000 registrations federal authorities suspected involved noncitizens. The short unsigned order offered no explanation and recorded no public dissent. Its significance is immediate: California can continue using its existing procedures rather than implement the demanded segregation at the last possible moment.
The federal government said the separation would preserve its ability to examine eligibility. California challenged the accuracy of the list and argued that the remedy could interrupt active processing and burden eligible voters. The request had already been rejected in district court and before a divided Ninth Circuit panel.
The courts were not asked to rewrite federal citizenship requirements. They were asked whether this evidence and this executive request authorized a disruption of state election administration. California Attorney General Rob Bonta called the Supreme Court action the fourth court victory in the state’s challenge.
The larger legal questions can continue beyond Tuesday, but the emergency request was refused before voting concluded. That is a meaningful constitutional boundary at the precise moment the country needs election officials to perform their duties.
SUPREME COURT / NOV 2 · CALIFORNIA AG / NOV 2 · CALIFORNIA COURT STORY
ELECTION WORKERS / COURT PROTECTION
THE PEOPLE COUNTING NEED ROOM TO WORK
The temporary order protects lawful administration while litigation continues.
Judge Trina L. Thompson issued an October 30 temporary restraining order limiting coercive actions by Justice Department and Homeland Security officials toward election workers and administrators. The legal dispute concerns federal efforts to pressure states to remove registrations or set aside ballots based on contested eligibility allegations. The order is currently scheduled to expire November 16 unless changed by the court.
The administration appealed, and the court convened a hearing on November 2 after the government requested relief from the order. Further proceedings remain on the calendar, including a November 13 preliminary-injunction hearing. Those dates matter because the public count, canvass and certification process do not conclude when the television maps change color.
Administering a national election requires quiet competence on an immense scale: verifying envelopes, securing ballots, reconciling totals and documenting every lawful step. None of those tasks becomes easier when officials must contend with personal threats or uncertainty about conflicting directives.
For the people carrying out those responsibilities, legal clarity is not an abstract constitutional luxury. It determines whether they can do the work voters have already entrusted to them. Protecting the process means protecting the people assigned to carry it out.
THE MONITOR QUESTION / NAACP
WHO GETS TO STAND INSIDE A POLLING PLACE?
A November 2 emergency filing scrutinizes federal law-enforcement personnel.
The NAACP announced an emergency request for a temporary restraining order in NAACP v. Blanche, challenging the Justice Department’s plan to deploy approximately 1,000 federal election monitors. According to the organization, documents obtained through records litigation identify intended personnel from the Bureau of Prisons, Drug Enforcement Administration and Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives.
The Justice Department says it does not plan to place FBI or ICE agents at polling sites. The NAACP and allied organizations argue that using law-enforcement personnel in the monitoring role may intimidate voters, particularly in communities with a history of discriminatory policing. Their filing asks a court to restrict that practice before Election Day.
The precise authority and placement of federal personnel matter. Federal observers, state election officials, partisan poll watchers and law-enforcement officers occupy different legal roles. A courthouse filing is an appropriate place to examine whether an agency’s proposed conduct fits the powers granted by law.
The NAACP has urged eligible voters to participate and is publicizing the 866-OUR-VOTE election-protection hotline. Public scrutiny can coexist with voter confidence: the point is to keep polling places safe and accessible while every allegation and legal challenge receives a fair hearing.
ALASKA / THE CERTIFICATION QUESTION
THE SUIT WAS DISMISSED. THE BALLOTS REMAIN SECRET.
A judge rejected the DOJ plan to investigate votes for two candidates named Sullivan.
On November 1, U.S. District Judge Sharon Gleason dismissed the federal government’s lawsuit seeking a potential delay to Alaska’s Senate certification if Republican incumbent Dan S. Sullivan lost and another candidate, Daniel J. Sullivan, received enough votes to affect the apparent margin. The complaint focused on the risk of voter confusion in a ranked-choice election.
Gleason wrote that the Justice Department offered no workable plan to isolate ballots for the second Sullivan and investigate voter intentions while preserving ballot secrecy. The department has said it would appeal. Alaska’s election officials continue preparing to administer a ballot that clearly distinguishes candidate names and affiliations.
Other reporting has raised questions about the circumstances of the second Sullivan’s candidacy and connections to Democratic campaign circles. Those inquiries are distinct from the certification remedy the court rejected, and any allegations of misconduct require evidence and the procedures appropriate to an investigation.
Alaska is worth watching well beyond the initial election-night report. If ranked-choice transfers are needed, the state plans to complete that process after remaining eligible ballots have been reviewed. The official record, rather than campaign speculation, will determine the result.
ELECTION RECORDS / THE NATIONAL LETTERS
FIFTY STATES RECEIVED THE SAME WARNING
Existing retention law has entered a heated dispute over federal oversight.
The Justice Department sent letters to election officials in all 50 states reminding them that federal election records generally must be retained for 22 months. The letters referred to criminal penalties for willful violations of federal records law. These statutory duties are longstanding, not new obligations created by the letters.
The timing gave the letters political and legal significance because the administration is simultaneously litigating disputes over voter lists, ballot handling and certification. Preserving an election record for later examination is a different act from ordering an administrator to change how an eligible ballot is handled today.
A properly preserved ballot and a documented chain of custody protect voters across parties. They make review, litigation, auditing and a lawful recount possible without forcing anyone to rely on a television commentator’s version of events.
This is the part of political chaos I actually enjoy: the moment the shouting meets the document. The preservation statute provides the rules for keeping records, and the courts are determining what further interventions the government has authority to demand.
CAMPAIGN FINALE / MICHIGAN
THE ENDORSEMENT THAT UPENDED PARTY EXPECTATIONS
Haley Stevens backed Republican Mike Rogers after losing to Abdul El-Sayed.
Michigan delivered one of the cycle’s most striking endorsements when Democratic Representative Haley Stevens announced support for Republican Senate candidate Mike Rogers rather than Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed. Stevens had lost the Democratic primary to El-Sayed in August after a bitter contest, and she publicly cited their fractured relationship and disagreements.
The announcement arrived alongside final surveys showing El-Sayed ahead, including a New York Times/Siena poll that placed him at 53 percent to Rogers’s 42 percent. Because the polling was conducted before the public endorsement, it describes the electorate in the preceding days rather than the response to Sunday’s news.
The split has drawn attention to arguments over foreign policy, primary campaigning, political financing and party loyalty. Those issues will matter beyond this one contest because they speak to how coalitions survive disagreement while asking voters for a shared mandate.
The remarkable thing about an election is that no former candidate, party official or television network gets the final signature. Michigan voters do. The endorsement is part of the record they may consider, but it does not displace their authority.
MICHIGAN ENDORSEMENT · SIENA / NOV 1 · REUTERS / FINAL TRAIL
PUBLIC TRUST / JUDICIARY REPORT
THE CORRUPTION FILE DOES NOT CLOSE TONIGHT
House Judiciary Democratic staff released a report on October 26.
The Democratic staff of the House Judiciary Committee released a report on October 26 drawing on interviews, FBI records and survivor accounts concerning Jeffrey Epstein and his relationship with Donald Trump. The report alleges serious misconduct and criticizes the Justice Department’s handling of investigative materials. Its conclusions are claims made by committee minority staff, not findings of a criminal court.
The report raises questions about whether records have been withheld, which investigative leads were pursued and how senior officials influenced the department’s public explanation of its Epstein review. It calls for an independent special counsel and broader disclosure. Those requests are a matter for future oversight, legal proceedings and public examination.
The underlying allegations involve vulnerable people and deserve the seriousness that victim testimony and corroborating records require. The central political question for the next Congress is what transparency and independent scrutiny will be possible, regardless of who controls each chamber.
Corruption is also a measurable election concern. Harvard’s October youth survey found that 88 percent of registered young voters at least somewhat likely to vote regarded corruption in government as important. Investigating official conduct should not depend on whether the person under scrutiny belongs to a preferred party.
INTERNATIONAL DESK / COALITION
ISRAEL ENTERS COALITION NEGOTIATIONS
The parliamentary result changes political leverage without yet producing a government.
Israel’s final election count gives Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s aligned bloc 53 seats in the 120-member Knesset, with 48 going to the principal opposition grouping and 19 to Arab-led parties. A governing majority requires 61 seats. The next chapter concerns whether parties will negotiate a coalition, attempt a broader unity arrangement or ultimately return to voters.
The outcome is important to Americans because debates about Israel, Iran, military aid and regional escalation have featured prominently during the midterm campaign. The foreign-policy implications will depend on the negotiations and on the decisions taken by Israeli and American officials after the election.
The political arithmetic should be read separately from the rhetoric of each party. The largest party does not automatically command a governing majority, and a claim of electoral fraud does not become fact through repetition.
Across countries, the same democratic principle keeps reappearing: legitimacy depends on actual rules, actual votes and lawful institutional procedures. It is a principle worth defending without romanticizing the politicians who participate in those systems.
ELECTION SAFETY / THE PUBLIC RECORD
THE MOST POWERFUL TOOL IS A RELIABLE SOURCE
Voting systems work through many people and many local procedures.
Election workers have prepared for months to manage registration records, equipment, accessibility, poll books, mail ballots, early voting and Election Day queues. At the same time, local complaints about machines and administrative errors can travel far beyond their original context in a few seconds. The correct response to a specific reported error is to examine the equipment, documentation and official remedy.
Mistakes and disputes deserve attention. A viral video alone cannot establish a coordinated national operation, just as an agency’s press release alone cannot establish that its allegations have been proven. The record grows stronger when election administrators publish their procedures and independent observers can examine what actually happened.
Those who encounter an issue should rely on their state or local election office for applicable instructions. The NAACP and its partners also publicize the nonpartisan 866-OUR-VOTE line for people seeking assistance or reporting possible interference.
The right to participate is made practical through thousands of local details. Every completed ballot is one person asserting a place in the public record, and that is a profoundly consequential action no matter how ordinary it looks from outside.
EARLY VOTING / NOVEMBER 3 SNAPSHOT
MORE THAN 54 MILLION BALLOTS CAST
On Point Politics, morning November 3 reporting across 47 states.
54,508,660
REPORTED EARLY BALLOTS
26.2M MAIL RETURNED 28.3M EARLY IN PERSON
Reported ballot volume is not a declaration of vote choice. Party-registration information covers only states that publish it; a separate model fills other states in the On Point system. The national total is a dated snapshot from state-level feeds that continue updating.
ON POINT / NOV 3 STATE TOTALS · UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA / TRACKER
EARLY VOTE / THE FIVE BIGGEST
VOTING HAS ALREADY REWRITTEN THE MORNING
On Point November 3 snapshot; in millions of ballots.
TEXAS 6.86M
CALIFORNIA 6.66M
FLORIDA 5.46M
NORTH CAROLINA 2.82M
GEORGIA 2.51M
The scale captures documented early participation, not a tally of candidates. Texas and California have each recorded more than six million ballots, while the Carolinas and Georgia remain crucial to national and statewide races. These figures will continue to change as election offices complete their reporting.
OPEN THE ORIGINAL STATE-BY-STATE TRACKER
NATIONAL POLLING / FINAL RELEASES
THE PUBLIC MOOD / THREE DIFFERENT LENSES
Late national generic-ballot polls, separately sourced and dated.
| Poll and field dates | Generic ballot |
|---|---|
| REUTERS / IPSOS | OCT 29 – NOV 2 | D 52% / R 44% |
| NBC NEWS | OCT 28 – OCT 30 | D 52% / R 45% |
| ECONOMIST / YOUGOV | OCT 27 – OCT 30 | D 53% / R 44% |
Reuters/Ipsos interviewed 1,765 adults, using a probability-based panel, and reported 52%-44% among likely voters on the congressional question. NBC surveyed registered voters and found 52%-45%. Their different samples help us see the breadth of the political environment without turning a national preference into a district seat count.
REUTERS IPSOS / ORIGINAL RELEASE · REALCLEARPOLLING / NATIONAL TABLE
SEVEN-STATE SENATE DESK
THE SEVEN SUNDAY SENATE MEASUREMENTS
New York Times / Siena, released November 1; likely voter candidate preferences.
| State | Democratic candidate % | Republican candidate % | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| ALASKA | Mary Peltola 48 | Dan Sullivan 46 | D +2 |
| IOWA | Josh Turek 48 | Ashley Hinson 47 | D +1 |
| KANSAS | Adam Hamilton 49 | Roger Marshall 44 | D +5 |
| MAINE | Troy Jackson 51 | Susan Collins 45 | D +6 |
| MICHIGAN | Abdul El-Sayed 53 | Mike Rogers 42 | D +11 |
| OHIO | Sherrod Brown 49 | Jon Husted 44 | D +5 |
| TEXAS | James Talarico 50 | Ken Paxton 43 | D +7 |
Each state has its own sample and sampling margin; the original Siena release includes all seven methodologies.
THE GOVERNOR DESK / SIENA
SEVEN MORE STATES, SEVEN GOVERNOR RACES
Same November 1 Siena release; Alaska uses ranked-choice voting.
| State | Democratic candidate % | Republican candidate % | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| ALASKA | Kreiss-Tomkins 54 | Wilson 46 | D +8 |
| IOWA | Sand 51 | Lahn 43 | D +8 |
| KANSAS | Holscher 48 | Masterson 47 | D +1 |
| MAINE | Pingree 49 | Charles 37 | D +12 |
| MICHIGAN | Benson 52 | James 39 | D +13 |
| OHIO | Acton 49 | Ramaswamy 43 | D +6 |
| TEXAS | Hinojosa 48 | Abbott 47 | D +1 |
Maine also includes independent Richard Bennett at 8%; the table shows the principal party candidates.
LATE POLLS / MAINE AND TEXAS
THE CLOSER YOU LOOK, THE MORE YOU FIND
Different pollsters report different final margins in the same contests.
In Maine, the November 1 Siena survey has Troy Jackson ahead of Senator Susan Collins by six points. Other final surveys have shown a range of outcomes, including a University of New Hampshire result favoring Jackson and a Poll Vault/Emerson poll favoring Collins. The final polling record captures an electorate that may be responsive to turnout and to the different assumptions pollsters make about who will vote.
In Texas, Siena places James Talarico at 50 percent to Ken Paxton’s 43 percent, while a Trafalgar release shows an even race and AtlasIntel shows a smaller Democratic advantage. The governor contest is also close: Siena finds Gina Hinojosa leading Greg Abbott by one point, whereas other surveys find Abbott narrowly ahead.
None of these surveys will cast a ballot. They are measurements taken from different samples in the final days, and the range itself is worth examining. A thoughtful investigator keeps the original question wording and the field dates attached to the figures.
For readers following the race after polls close, the useful task will be comparing each published snapshot with the full official count and the state’s own reporting timeline. That is how we learn what the surveys captured and where they missed.
HOUSE BALANCE / COOK NOVEMBER 2
435 DISTRICTS. ONE VERY LARGE QUESTION.
Cook Political Report, ratings published November 2; not a seat projection.
SOLID D: 186 LIKELY D: 18 LEAN D: 18 TOSS UP: 18
LEAN R: 18 LIKELY R: 17 SOLID R: 160
The ratings classify competitiveness rather than determine winners. The current Cook categories put 222 districts in the Democratic solid/likely/lean columns, 195 in the Republican columns and 18 in Toss Up. Each House constituency makes its own choice; 218 seats are required for a majority.
THE HOUSE / FINAL TOSS UPS
EIGHTEEN DISTRICTS AT THE CENTER
Cook Political Report classifications dated November 2.
CA-22 TOSS UP
MI-04 TOSS UP
OH-07 TOSS UP
CO-05 TOSS UP
MI-07 TOSS UP
PA-01 TOSS UP
FL-14 TOSS UP
MI-10 TOSS UP
SC-01 TOSS UP
FL-22 TOSS UP
MT-01 TOSS UP
TX-35 TOSS UP
IA-02 TOSS UP
NC-01 TOSS UP
TX-15 TOSS UP
KY-06 TOSS UP
NY-17 TOSS UP
VA-01 TOSS UP
A NATIONAL ELECTION / LOCAL OUTCOMES
THE MAP IS MADE OF REAL NEIGHBORHOODS
A 68-race directory is no substitute for listening to the people who live there.
Pennsylvania’s competitive districts run through communities with their own labor markets, transportation needs, healthcare concerns and local political histories. The latest Cook ratings place several Republican-held districts in the Lean Democratic column and the First District in Toss Up. Those labels describe a national analytical environment expressed through profoundly local contests.
Florida includes an unusual cluster of congressional seats with different partisan dynamics. California’s redrawn districts and the court dispute over voter eligibility have drawn particular attention, but voters across the state continue casting ballots through their established county election systems.
In Alaska and several other states, the order in which ballots are processed can be as important to an observer’s understanding as the first totals themselves. Ranked-choice voting, mail-ballot rules and district geography all shape when the public can see a complete count.
The race directory at the back of this edition preserves each contest with the most recent dated information available for that dossier, along with direct links to Cook ratings, candidate filings and other primary records. It is a record readers can reopen after the speeches end.
THE YOUNG ELECTORATE / OCTOBER 22
AFFORDABILITY AND CORRUPTION ARE CONNECTED
Harvard surveyed 2,024 Americans ages 18 to 29 in late September and early October.
Harvard’s autumn Youth Poll places the cost of living at the top of the concerns measured among registered young people who say they might vote, with 91 percent calling it important. Government corruption follows closely at 88 percent. That pairing deserves attention because concerns about housing, wages, healthcare and government integrity often share a common question: who benefits when institutions make decisions?
The same survey found that 49 percent felt their finances had worsened since the current administration began, while more respondents expected to become worse off than their parents than expected to do better. The findings convey unease that extends beyond one particular campaign event.
Young respondents also expressed distrust of the performance of both congressional parties. Political skepticism, however, does not necessarily erase civic engagement. The group of young people certain to vote reported meaningful beliefs about the potential influence of participation.
If this election is a demand for change, the demand will not end when a new legislature convenes. Voters will still want to know who is providing healthcare, who is making the rules for work and housing, and who answers when public resources are used badly.
NEBRASKA / AN INDEPENDENT TEST
THE RACE OUTSIDE THE TWO-PARTY FORMULA
Dan Osborn and Pete Ricketts contest a closely watched Senate seat.
Nebraska’s Senate contest is unusual because independent candidate Dan Osborn is competing against Republican incumbent Pete Ricketts. The October 31 New York Times/Siena survey placed Ricketts at 49 percent and Osborn at 43 percent among likely voters, a different position from some other independent and statewide surveys.
The outcome is being watched for what it may reveal about voters who are dissatisfied with party institutions but remain interested in the practical effects of legislation and the work of Congress. The independent candidacy tests the boundaries of the usual partisan map in a predominantly Republican state.
Nebraska is also a reminder that a poll margin must be understood in the context of who was surveyed, when it was fielded, and the local political environment. The final ballot count will measure a different electorate from any one sample.
Whatever occurs, the political significance of Osborn’s campaign cannot be captured solely by a presidential map. Local issues, trade union organizing and candidate biography have made this race part of the national conversation about representation.
ELECTION NIGHT / READING THE RETURNS
WHEN POLLS CLOSE, THE COUNT BEGINS
Times Eastern Standard; closing waves, not predictions of final results.
6:00 PM PARTS OF INDIANA / KENTUCKY
7:00 PM GEORGIA, SOUTH CAROLINA, VIRGINIA + OTHERS
7:30 PM NORTH CAROLINA, OHIO, WEST VIRGINIA
8:00 PM MAINE, PENNSYLVANIA, FLORIDA + MANY STATES
9:00 PM IOWA, KANSAS, MICHIGAN, TEXAS + OTHERS
10:00 PM NEVADA, MONTANA, UTAH + PARTS
11:00 PM CALIFORNIA, WASHINGTON + PARTS
LATER ALASKA AND HAWAII; TIME ZONES VARY
CBS / ELECTION RESULTS COVERAGE
BACK TO START CBS / ELECTION RESULTS COVERAGE · 270TOWIN / CLOSE TIMES
THE FIRST COUNT / STATE BY STATE
A FIRST REPORT IS ONE CHAPTER OF THE BOOK
Mail, early in-person, Election Day and provisional ballots enter public totals on different schedules.
Networks can project a winner before every ballot has been counted when the available information supports a clear call. A jurisdiction’s unofficial returns, a network projection and the state’s certified results are three distinct products, each with its own methods and legal meaning. That distinction becomes more important when a margin is close.
Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Alaska and other states have different rules governing mail ballots, provisional ballots and local canvassing. Partial returns may therefore look different from the electorate that ultimately appears in the final result. The official election office provides the best evidence about what remains unprocessed.
Alaska’s ranked-choice Senate contest may require later transfers after eligible ballots have been received and reviewed. CBS reports that the state expects final ranked-choice tabulation on November 18 if it is needed. A race not called on Tuesday night is not an institutional failure.
My hope for everyone following the Chaos Desk is that we can enjoy the historic drama without allowing it to replace judgment. We have waited this long for voters to speak; they deserve the time necessary for their ballots to be accounted for.
FORECAST FILE / OCTOBER 31
THE 237 HOUSE / 52 SENATE FORECAST
The CNN analyst Harry Enten placed specific estimates on the record before Election Day.
Harry Enten’s final pre-election analysis offered a 237 Democratic, 198 Republican House projection and a 52 Democratic, 48 Republican Senate projection. His aggregation of models described a 92 percent chance of Democratic House control and a 71 percent chance of Democratic Senate control at the time of publication.
He also warned about historical polling errors, particularly in Republican-leaning states where Senate candidates have sometimes outperformed their final polling average. That caveat matters when closely divided contests in Iowa, Alaska, Kansas, Ohio and Texas could decide the balance of power.
For governors, Enten separately cited an 83 percent prediction-market figure, not a survey and not the same instrument as his House and Senate model. Keeping that distinction intact allows us to make sensible comparisons after the election.
The value of the archived forecast is that it offers a testable historical claim. When the official results are available, we will be able to see which expectations held up and which parts of the model need reconsideration.
5:55 AM EST / NOV 3 / WASHINGTON DC
THE ELECTION MORNING SKY
Swiss Ephemeris / tropical geocentric positions / 10:55 UTC. The chart is calculated, not approximated.
| Body | Position | LSDS pressure |
|---|---|---|
| Sun ☉︎ | 11°02′ Scorpio ♏︎ | SOVEREIGN |
| Moon ☽︎ | 01°23′ Virgo ♍︎ | IGNITION |
| Mercury ☿︎ Rx | 13°41′ Scorpio ♏︎ | SOVEREIGN |
| Venus ♀︎ Rx | 25°07′ Libra ♎︎ | BREAKING |
| Mars ♂︎ | 19°51′ Leo ♌︎ | SOVEREIGN |
| Jupiter ♃︎ | 24°37′ Leo ♌︎ | BREAKING |
| Saturn ♄︎ Rx | 09°08′ Aries ♈︎ | FORMING |
| Uranus ♅︎ Rx | 04°35′ Gemini ♊︎ | FORMING |
| Neptune ♆︎ Rx | 02°02′ Aries ♈︎ | IGNITION |
| Pluto ♇︎ | 03°09′ Aquarius ♒︎ | FORMING |
BACK TO START READ THE NOVEMBER 2 WEEKLY SKY ARTICLE · READ THE LIVING SOVEREIGN DECAN SYSTEM
ASTRONOMY / TROPICAL ECLIPTIC
A WHEEL OF PRECISE POSITIONS
The ten classical + modern bodies at 5:55 AM EST, November 3. Glyphs mark measured longitudes.
The morning signature
Moon ☽︎ in Ignition Virgo ♍︎ has just entered the realm of procedures and practical care. Sun ☉︎ and Mercury ☿︎ retrograde in Sovereign Scorpio ♏︎ concentrate attention on documentation and institutional accountability.
Venus ♀︎ retrograde in Breaking Libra ♎︎ is nearly sextile Jupiter ♃︎ in Breaking Leo ♌︎. Mars ♂︎ is a few hours from the Eris-ruled Breaking decan of Leo ♌︎. The morning has both tension and constructive possibility.
AS ABOVE, SO BELOW / OPENING
THE BALLOT IS NOT A FOOTNOTE
Today belongs to the person doing the work, not merely the person commanding the camera.
The Moon ☽︎ enters Virgo ♍︎ shortly after midnight Pacific on Election Day, leaving the visibility and theatrical confidence of Leo ♌︎ behind for the material details of Virgo ♍︎. At 5:55 AM Eastern, the Moon ☽︎ occupies approximately 1 degree 23 minutes of Virgo ♍︎, the Ignition pressure zone in my Living Sovereign Decan System. The symbolic shift could hardly offer a more useful meditation for a nation preparing to count millions of ballots.
Leo ♌︎ asks who deserves recognition. Virgo ♍︎ asks whether the work has been done accurately. That movement does not extinguish courage; it gives courage a method. The individual who arrives at a polling place, the worker who checks a record, and the official who documents a count all participate in an enormous collective task that requires attention more than applause.
This morning the Sun ☉︎ and Mercury ☿︎ retrograde share Sovereign Scorpio ♏︎, while Venus ♀︎ retrograde travels through Breaking Libra ♎︎. Those placements bring the questions of trust, confidentiality, authority and obligation into the same symbolic conversation. The actual answers to political disputes are legal and evidentiary. Astrology helps me investigate how a collective moment feels, which human choices receive attention and what kind of responsibility the moment invites.
I keep returning to the theme of yesterday’s weekly essay: discernment without haste. Election Day will generate enormous emotional energy, and every person will be invited to develop an opinion before many important facts are available. The Virgo ♍︎ Moon ☽︎ offers a different rhythm. Observe carefully, do what belongs to you, and allow the record to develop.
AS ABOVE, SO BELOW / THE MOON ☽︎
VIRGO ♍︎ TURNS THE CAMERAS TOWARD THE COUNT
At 1 degree Virgo ♍︎ the Moon ☽︎ begins a new sequence of practical discernment.
The Moon ☽︎ crossed into Virgo ♍︎ at approximately 3:27 AM Eastern and occupies Ignition at the 5:55 AM chart. The degree is young, yet its symbolism is precise. Virgo ♍︎ concerns the capacity to distinguish what actually happened from what merely appears convincing, to detect errors in a process, and to care for the small actions that make larger commitments possible.
That is a profoundly different public mood from the last days of campaigning, when Mars ♂︎ and Jupiter ♃︎ in Leo ♌︎ have rewarded bold statements, public gatherings and the performance of confidence. The Virgo ♍︎ Moon ☽︎ brings our attention to county offices, ballot scanners, signed orders, public notices and staff members whose names most of the electorate will never learn.
Later in the morning, the Moon ☽︎ applies to a square with Uranus ♅︎ retrograde in Gemini ♊︎, perfecting at approximately 11:36 AM Eastern. Symbolically this is a contact between procedural care and an unsettled information environment. Technology, rapid communication and public expectations can create friction when a real process moves more slowly than a social-media feed.
A square is not an instruction to panic. It is a reminder to practice competence under pressure. When the information moves quickly, a calm question about the original source can be more revolutionary than adding another hundred opinions to the noise.
AS ABOVE, SO BELOW / SOVEREIGN SCORPIO ♏︎
THE SUN ☉︎ AND MERCURY ☿︎ OPEN THE RECORDS
A retrograde conjunction approaches within the Pluto ♇︎-ruled second decan.
At 5:55 AM, the Sun ☉︎ occupies 11 degrees 02 minutes Scorpio ♏︎ and Mercury ☿︎ retrograde 13 degrees 41 minutes Scorpio ♏︎. Both are in Sovereign pressure, within the second Scorpio ♏︎ decan ruled by Pluto ♇︎ in my system. The symbolism concerns authority exercised with awareness, the examination of hidden structures and the responsibility to test what institutions claim.
This is an unusually apt lens for the election litigation moving through California and Alaska. In California, federal allegations about voter eligibility met questions concerning the methods used to create the relevant list and the authority to require emergency ballot segregation. In Alaska, a federal certification request encountered the practical and legal difficulty of examining secret ballots after they had been cast.
Mercury ☿︎ retrograde invites another reading of the text, while Scorpio ♏︎ insists that the consequences of the text be taken seriously. A court filing is not the same thing as a press release about that filing; a registration record is not automatically proof of a federal voting offense. The willingness to distinguish the documents is itself a form of public accountability.
In Sovereign pressure, I am less interested in the performance of being certain than in a person or institution capable of giving sound reasons for its actions. The right to question power is strengthened, not weakened, by the discipline of checking the original evidence.
SUPREME COURT / NOV 2 · ALASKA / NOV 1 · NOV 2 WEEK BENEATH STARS
AS ABOVE, SO BELOW / MERCURY ☿︎ CAZIMI
NOVEMBER 4: THE MOMENT OF RECONSIDERATION
Mercury ☿︎ retrograde and the Sun ☉︎ reach exact conjunction tomorrow morning.
Mercury ☿︎ retrograde is traveling backward toward the Sun ☉︎ in Scorpio ♏︎. Their exact solar conjunction arrives on November 4 at approximately 9:24 AM Eastern, near 12 degrees Scorpio ♏︎. In traditional language, the event is commonly called a cazimi, and in the Living Sovereign Decan System it takes place within the Sovereign zone of Pluto ♇︎-ruled Scorpio ♏︎.
The timing is compelling because the conjunction follows Election Day. During that interval, the country will be exposed to partial counts, political claims, legal petitions, statistical estimates and a tremendous desire for an immediate conclusion. The cazimi becomes a symbol for revisiting assumptions as information develops, rather than treating the first apparent explanation as the last word.
Scorpio ♏︎ is not content with a reassuring surface. It asks what is in the record, who has access to it, how the procedure was designed and whether an authority has followed its own rules. Mercury ☿︎ retrograde directs attention toward revisions and the consequences of misunderstandings, including misunderstandings that arise from incomplete reporting.
There is hopeful symbolism here. A clearer picture can emerge after careful reconsideration. Clarity, in this sense, is not a flash of infallible certainty but a willingness to become more accurate as the evidence develops. I would rather have a truth that has been examined than a perfect slogan delivered ten minutes after polls close.
AS ABOVE, SO BELOW / BREAKING LEO ♌︎
MARS ♂︎ CROSSES THE ERIS DECAN ON ELECTION DAY
The pressure changes around 1:15 PM Eastern, in the middle of the civic day.
Mars ♂︎ stands at 19 degrees 51 minutes Leo ♌︎ at 5:55 AM Eastern, still occupying the final stretch of Sovereign pressure. At approximately 1:15 PM Eastern, Mars ♂︎ crosses 20 degrees Leo ♌︎, entering Breaking pressure and the Eris-ruled third decan in my Living Sovereign Decan System. Jupiter ♃︎ is already there at roughly 24 degrees 37 minutes Leo ♌︎.
Leo ♌︎ deals with recognition, identity and leadership; Eris introduces the problem of exclusion and the disruption that occurs when people believe they have been denied a legitimate place. Mars ♂︎ supplies momentum and the desire to act. In a political context, this is rich symbolism for a public contest in which every campaign hopes its supporters will be seen and heard.
The shadow of Breaking pressure can be a struggle to convert every disagreement into an existential battle. When public figures describe every close count as a theft or every rival as an enemy, their performance can pull ordinary people into conflicts that have no useful relationship to the actual evidence.
The healthier expression is active courage with a defined purpose. A person can exercise a legal right, document a genuine problem and challenge a government action without treating uncertainty as permission to invent a villain. The Eris decan asks who is being excluded; a thoughtful answer begins with the people whose rights and voices are actually at stake.
AS ABOVE, SO BELOW / VENUS ♀︎ AND JUPITER ♃︎
THE SKY OFFERS AN ALTERNATIVE TO HOSTILITY
A nearly exact sextile links two Breaking placements and opens tomorrow morning.
Venus ♀︎ retrograde is at 25 degrees 07 minutes Libra ♎︎, in Breaking pressure and the Mercury ☿︎-ruled third decan. Jupiter ♃︎ occupies 24 degrees 37 minutes Leo ♌︎, also in Breaking pressure and in the Eris decan. Their sextile is less than a degree from exact at the morning chart and perfects around 5:31 AM Eastern on November 4.
Libra ♎︎ concerns the agreements that make coexistence possible, while Leo ♌︎ concerns the dignity of the individual and the visibility of collective leadership. Venus ♀︎ retraces expectations and obligations; Jupiter ♃︎ expands the horizon of what cooperation might accomplish. The angle between them offers a welcome counterpoint to the more confrontational patterns of this week.
This is why I resist allowing the election story to become entirely about fear. Courts, election offices, community volunteers and ordinary voters are participating in a set of shared agreements that can be tested and improved. Conflict sometimes reveals where an agreement has broken down, but repair is possible when people remain willing to act in good faith and accept accountable limits.
I do not need to pretend that every political opponent will become a friend. The hope in this sextile is more practical: people can make an arrangement fairer, protect another person’s right to participate, and choose a useful response over a performative argument.
AS ABOVE, SO BELOW / THE SLOW PLANETS
WHAT HAPPENS TO THE INSTITUTIONS AFTER THE VOTE?
The outer-planet pressure zones broaden Election Day into a longer historical inquiry.
Saturn ♄︎ retrograde at 9 degrees 08 minutes Aries ♈︎ occupies Forming pressure, examining the boundary between personal agency and enforceable authority. Neptune ♆︎ retrograde at 2 degrees 02 minutes Aries ♈︎ remains in Ignition, suggesting the uncertain beginning of another collective argument about ideals, power and the responsibilities that accompany political belief.
Uranus ♅︎ retrograde at 4 degrees 35 minutes Gemini ♊︎ also occupies Forming, connecting the question of changing institutions to communication systems, rapid information and technical infrastructure. When the Moon ☽︎ squares Uranus ♅︎ this morning, the immediate experience may feel faster and more unsettled than the underlying administrative process actually is.
Pluto ♇︎ at approximately 3 degrees 09 minutes Aquarius ♒︎ occupies Forming pressure and moves slowly direct. The Aquarius ♒︎ territory concerns networks, institutions, political structures and the ways power becomes organized across large groups. The question is not whether a single official can claim a victory on television, but how a legal result becomes recognized and enforced inside those systems.
Our election will generate winners and losers, but institutional legitimacy is not a one-night award. It is assembled through procedures, preserved records, public oversight and the continued participation of people who may disagree profoundly about policy. That is the long arc I want us to study after November 3.
NOV 2 WEEK BENEATH STARS · WORKER ORDER / DOCKET · COOK HOUSE / NOV 2
AS ABOVE, SO BELOW / THE WIDER ARC
DISCERNMENT WITHOUT HASTE
The waning Moon ☽︎ leads toward a Scorpio ♏︎ New Moon ☽︎ on November 9.
The Moon ☽︎ is waning following the November 1 Last Quarter phase in Leo ♌︎. After moving into Virgo ♍︎ on Election Day, it will continue through Libra ♎︎ and later Scorpio ♏︎, approaching the November 9 New Moon ☽︎. This sequence shifts the symbolic emphasis from visibility and public emotion to practical evaluation, shared agreements and the deeper work of deciding what comes next.
Mercury ☿︎ retrograde is not a prohibition on action. Venus ♀︎ retrograde is not an instruction to surrender relationships. Mars ♂︎ entering Breaking pressure is not a guarantee of conflict. These are a language for examining choices, and their value depends on how carefully we use them alongside the real circumstances of our lives.
I want the Agents of Chaos to recognize that the ability to protect a boundary, ask a precise question or help a neighbor is itself a form of sovereignty. No individual has to resolve the national political landscape before they are allowed to take care of their family, their health or the ordinary responsibilities that deserve attention.
Yesterday I wrote about the things we cannot unknow. Today the Moon ☽︎ in Virgo ♍︎ asks what we will do with that awareness. We can refuse the spectacle without abandoning the work. We can stay open to new facts without surrendering our values. And we can practice the kind of patient, well-documented hope that actually changes a system.
PRECISE SKY / THE NEXT 30 HOURS
THE ASTROLOGICAL CLOCK
Calculated tropical transit times in Eastern Standard Time.
| Time (EST) | Event | Context |
|---|---|---|
| TUE 3:27 AM | MOON ☽︎ ENTERS VIRGO ♍︎ | Ignition / procedures and practical attention |
| TUE 5:55 AM | MORNING REFERENCE CHART | Moon ☽︎ 1 deg 23 Virgo ♍︎; Sun ☉︎ 11 deg 02 Scorpio ♏︎ |
| TUE 11:36 AM | MOON ☽︎ SQUARE URANUS ♅︎ | Information meets the boundaries of process |
| TUE 1:15 PM | MARS ♂︎ ENTERS 20 LEO ♌︎ | Eris-ruled Breaking pressure begins |
| WED 5:31 AM | VENUS ♀︎ SEXTILE JUPITER ♃︎ | A constructive relational counterweight |
| WED 9:24 AM | MERCURY ☿︎ / SUN ☉︎ CONJUNCTION | Cazimi in Sovereign Scorpio ♏︎ |
COMPANION READING / PUBLISHED NOVEMBER 2
THE WEEK BENEATH THE STARS
Discernment Without Haste: The Things We Cannot Unknow.
Yesterday I published The Week Beneath the Stars, November 2-7, a full weekly personal and collective astrology reading through the Living Sovereign Decan System. The central inquiry is the distance between recognizing something important and deciding what responsibility that recognition creates for us.
The reading follows Mercury ☿︎ retrograde in Scorpio ♏︎ toward its November 4 cazimi, Venus ♀︎ retrograde through Libra ♎︎, and Mars ♂︎ moving from Sovereign into the Eris-ruled Breaking decan of Leo ♌︎. It also includes the waning lunar sequence, a spiritual grounding practice and twelve rising-sign forecasts.
Today’s Election Morning Atlas takes those same celestial movements and examines their correspondence with real political institutions, the disputed authority to handle votes, the claims made during campaigning and the quieter work of protecting a trustworthy count.
The weekly essay belongs beside today’s investigation because the political world does not exist separately from our personal choices. The capacity to live with uncertainty, maintain boundaries and respond constructively to what we learn is as important in a household as it is in a democracy.
ORIGINAL SOURCE DESK / COURTS
READ THE ACTUAL RECORD
Original documents, dated releases, and direct source pages.
SUPREME COURT / NOV 2 · CALIFORNIA AG / NOV 2 · CALIFORNIA COURT STORY · ALASKA / NOV 1 · NAACP / NOV 2 · WORKER ORDER / DOCKET · WORKER ORDER / HEARING · RECORDS LETTERS · MICHIGAN ENDORSEMENT · REUTERS / FINAL TRAIL · EPSTEIN STAFF REPORT · ISRAEL / COALITION · OFFICIAL ELECTION OFFICES · POLL CLOSE / CBS
ORIGINAL SOURCE DESK / NUMBERS
THE POLLSTERS, RATINGS AND SKY
Original documents, dated releases, and direct source pages.
EARLY VOTE / NOV 3 · UF ELECTION LAB · SIENA / NOV 1 · COOK HOUSE / NOV 2 · REUTERS IPSOS / NOV 2 · GENERIC BALLOT / RCP · LATE POLLS / NOV 2 · HARVARD YOUTH / OCT 22 · POLL CLOSE / 270TOWIN · FEC / CANDIDATES · NOV 2 WEEK BENEATH STARS · LIVING SOVEREIGN DECANS · CHAOS DESK CHAT · INVESTING AGENTS
FROM THE CHAOS DESK / OUR COMMUNITY
THIS REPORTING REMAINS FREE
Investing Agents of Chaos make the research and source archive available to everyone.
The election ends on a specific date. The work of investigating public power does not. Court decisions, certification, legislative votes, financial disclosures and institutional reforms will continue generating records long after the excitement of election night is over.
My astropolitical reporting is open to every reader, whether or not a subscription is possible. The Investing Agents of Chaos provide voluntary support that keeps these records accessible and gives us room to continue the investigations beyond November 3.
HISTORICAL ARCHIVE / FREE ACCESS
THE RECORD BEFORE ELECTION DAY
Ten public editions from October 21 through October 31, preserved in chronological order.
OCT 21 / OPEN DATED ATLAS · OCT 23 / OPEN DATED ATLAS · OCT 24 / OPEN DATED ATLAS · OCT 25 / OPEN DATED ATLAS · OCT 26 / OPEN DATED ATLAS · OCT 27 / OPEN DATED ATLAS · OCT 28 / OPEN DATED ATLAS · OCT 29 / OPEN DATED ATLAS · OCT 30 / OPEN DATED ATLAS · OCT 31 / OPEN DATED ATLAS · RETURN TO THE FULL 31-PAGE WEEKLY ASTROLOGY ESSAY
NOVEMBER 3, 2026 / ELECTION MORNING
Your 68-race watchlist
Dated pre-election records, Cook classifications, named candidates, and the feature to watch as official returns arrive.
| Race | Classification |
|---|---|
| AK-AL | LEAN REPUBLICAN |
| AL-02 | LEAN REPUBLICAN |
| AZ-02 | LEAN REPUBLICAN |
| CO-04 | LEAN REPUBLICAN |
| FL-13 | LEAN REPUBLICAN |
| FL-27 | LEAN REPUBLICAN |
| ME-02 | LEAN REPUBLICAN |
| MN-01 | LEAN REPUBLICAN |
| NV-02 | LEAN REPUBLICAN |
| NY-21 | LEAN REPUBLICAN |
| OH-10 | LEAN REPUBLICAN |
| OH-15 | LEAN REPUBLICAN |
| TX-23 | LEAN REPUBLICAN |
| WI-01 | LEAN REPUBLICAN |
| AZ-01 | LEAN DEMOCRATIC |
| AZ-06 | LEAN DEMOCRATIC |
| CA-48 | LEAN DEMOCRATIC |
| CO-08 | LEAN DEMOCRATIC |
| FL-25 | LEAN DEMOCRATIC |
| IA-01 | LEAN DEMOCRATIC |
| IA-03 | LEAN DEMOCRATIC |
| NC-11 | LEAN DEMOCRATIC |
| NJ-07 | LEAN DEMOCRATIC |
| NM-02 | LEAN DEMOCRATIC |
| PA-07 | LEAN DEMOCRATIC |
| PA-10 | LEAN DEMOCRATIC |
| TX-34 | LEAN DEMOCRATIC |
| VA-02 | LEAN DEMOCRATIC |
| WA-03 | LEAN DEMOCRATIC |
| WI-03 | LEAN DEMOCRATIC |
| OH-09 | LEAN DEMOCRATIC |
| PA-08 | LEAN DEMOCRATIC |
| CA-13 | LIKELY DEMOCRATIC |
| CA-45 | LIKELY DEMOCRATIC |
| NE-02 | LIKELY DEMOCRATIC |
| CO-05 | TOSS UP |
| PA-01 | TOSS UP |
| SC-01 | TOSS UP |
| CA-22 | TOSS UP |
| FL-14 | TOSS UP |
| FL-22 | TOSS UP |
| IA-02 | TOSS UP |
| KY-06 | TOSS UP |
| MI-04 | TOSS UP |
| MI-07 | TOSS UP |
| MI-10 | TOSS UP |
| MT-01 | TOSS UP |
| NC-01 | TOSS UP |
| NY-17 | TOSS UP |
| OH-07 | TOSS UP |
| TX-35 | TOSS UP |
| TX-15 | TOSS UP |
| VA-01 | TOSS UP |
| TX SENATE | STATEWIDE |
| ME SENATE | STATEWIDE |
| MI SENATE | STATEWIDE |
| NH SENATE | STATEWIDE |
| IA SENATE | STATEWIDE |
| KS SENATE | STATEWIDE |
| OH SENATE | STATEWIDE |
| NC SENATE | STATEWIDE |
| GA SENATE | STATEWIDE |
| AK SENATE | STATEWIDE |
| MN SENATE | STATEWIDE |
| SC SENATE | STATEWIDE |
| FL GOVERNOR | STATEWIDE |
| NY GOVERNOR | STATEWIDE |
| TX GOVERNOR | STATEWIDE |
THE 68-RACE WATCHLIST / NOVEMBER 3
RACE 01 / AK-AL
Latest verified dossier note: November 2. Election Day count to follow.
COOK RACE CLASSIFICATION / NOVEMBER 2
LEAN REPUBLICAN
DISTRICT / INCUMBENT OR OPEN SEAT
AK-AL. Nick Begich III. Cook Political Report rates this contest Lean Republican on November 2, 2026.
THE FEATURE TO WATCH WHEN RETURNS ARRIVE
Alaska uses ranked-choice voting in this general election, so later rounds may matter to the final outcome.
Keep this dated pre-election record beside the official count, the published candidate filings and the state election office. Additional canvass and certification developments will become part of the post-election archive.
THE 68-RACE WATCHLIST / NOVEMBER 3
RACE 02 / AL-02
Latest verified dossier note: November 2. Election Day count to follow.
COOK RACE CLASSIFICATION / NOVEMBER 2
LEAN REPUBLICAN
DISTRICT / INCUMBENT OR OPEN SEAT
AL-02. Shomari Figures. Cook Political Report rates this contest Lean Republican on November 2, 2026.
THE FEATURE TO WATCH WHEN RETURNS ARRIVE
Remington Research, Republican-aligned: Rhett Marques 48%, Shomari Figures 46%. Alabama has a closely watched redrawn second district; candidate funding and district turnout belong beside the rating.
Keep this dated pre-election record beside the official count, the published candidate filings and the state election office. Additional canvass and certification developments will become part of the post-election archive.
THE 68-RACE WATCHLIST / NOVEMBER 3
RACE 03 / AZ-02
Latest verified dossier note: November 2. Election Day count to follow.
COOK RACE CLASSIFICATION / NOVEMBER 2
LEAN REPUBLICAN
DISTRICT / INCUMBENT OR OPEN SEAT
AZ-02. Eli Crane. Cook Political Report rates this contest Lean Republican on November 2, 2026.
THE FEATURE TO WATCH WHEN RETURNS ARRIVE
Arizona relies heavily on mail ballot returns. Distinct batches may enter the count over several days.
Keep this dated pre-election record beside the official count, the published candidate filings and the state election office. Additional canvass and certification developments will become part of the post-election archive.
THE 68-RACE WATCHLIST / NOVEMBER 3
RACE 04 / CO-04
Latest verified dossier note: November 2. Election Day count to follow.
COOK RACE CLASSIFICATION / NOVEMBER 2
LEAN REPUBLICAN
DISTRICT / INCUMBENT OR OPEN SEAT
CO-04. Lauren Boebert. Cook Political Report rates this contest Lean Republican on November 2, 2026.
THE FEATURE TO WATCH WHEN RETURNS ARRIVE
Colorado has multiple House districts on the competitive map, and local ballot-processing updates matter.
Keep this dated pre-election record beside the official count, the published candidate filings and the state election office. Additional canvass and certification developments will become part of the post-election archive.
THE 68-RACE WATCHLIST / NOVEMBER 3
RACE 05 / FL-13
Latest verified dossier note: November 2. Election Day count to follow.
COOK RACE CLASSIFICATION / NOVEMBER 2
LEAN REPUBLICAN
DISTRICT / INCUMBENT OR OPEN SEAT
FL-13. Anna Paulina Luna. Cook Political Report rates this contest Lean Republican on November 2, 2026.
THE FEATURE TO WATCH WHEN RETURNS ARRIVE
Florida has a substantial in-person early-voting electorate and several competitive districts.
Keep this dated pre-election record beside the official count, the published candidate filings and the state election office. Additional canvass and certification developments will become part of the post-election archive.
THE 68-RACE WATCHLIST / NOVEMBER 3
RACE 06 / FL-27
Latest verified dossier note: November 2. Election Day count to follow.
COOK RACE CLASSIFICATION / NOVEMBER 2
LEAN REPUBLICAN
DISTRICT / INCUMBENT OR OPEN SEAT
FL-27. Maria Elvira Salazar. Cook Political Report rates this contest Lean Republican on November 2, 2026.
THE FEATURE TO WATCH WHEN RETURNS ARRIVE
Florida has a substantial in-person early-voting electorate and several competitive districts.
Keep this dated pre-election record beside the official count, the published candidate filings and the state election office. Additional canvass and certification developments will become part of the post-election archive.
THE 68-RACE WATCHLIST / NOVEMBER 3
RACE 07 / ME-02
Latest verified dossier note: November 2. Election Day count to follow.
COOK RACE CLASSIFICATION / NOVEMBER 2
LEAN REPUBLICAN
DISTRICT / INCUMBENT OR OPEN SEAT
ME-02. Open seat (Jared Golden). Cook Political Report rates this contest Lean Republican on November 2, 2026.
THE FEATURE TO WATCH WHEN RETURNS ARRIVE
UNH Oct 31: former governor Paul LePage 52%, Democrat Matt Dunlap 47%. Maine has one closely contested open House district and a statewide Senate race with fresh university polling.
Keep this dated pre-election record beside the official count, the published candidate filings and the state election office. Additional canvass and certification developments will become part of the post-election archive.
THE 68-RACE WATCHLIST / NOVEMBER 3
RACE 08 / MN-01
Latest verified dossier note: November 2. Election Day count to follow.
COOK RACE CLASSIFICATION / NOVEMBER 2
LEAN REPUBLICAN
DISTRICT / INCUMBENT OR OPEN SEAT
MN-01. Brad Finstad. Cook Political Report rates this contest Lean Republican on November 2, 2026.
THE FEATURE TO WATCH WHEN RETURNS ARRIVE
Minnesota is also drawing attention for the scope of federal election monitoring.
Keep this dated pre-election record beside the official count, the published candidate filings and the state election office. Additional canvass and certification developments will become part of the post-election archive.
THE 68-RACE WATCHLIST / NOVEMBER 3
RACE 09 / NV-02
Latest verified dossier note: November 2. Election Day count to follow.
COOK RACE CLASSIFICATION / NOVEMBER 2
LEAN REPUBLICAN
DISTRICT / INCUMBENT OR OPEN SEAT
NV-02. Open seat (Mark Amodei). Cook Political Report rates this contest Lean Republican on November 2, 2026.
THE FEATURE TO WATCH WHEN RETURNS ARRIVE
Nevada reports party registration for early participation; its open seats bring new campaign coalitions.
Keep this dated pre-election record beside the official count, the published candidate filings and the state election office. Additional canvass and certification developments will become part of the post-election archive.
THE 68-RACE WATCHLIST / NOVEMBER 3
RACE 10 / NY-21
Latest verified dossier note: November 2. Election Day count to follow.
COOK RACE CLASSIFICATION / NOVEMBER 2
LEAN REPUBLICAN
DISTRICT / INCUMBENT OR OPEN SEAT
NY-21. Open seat (Elise Stefanik). Cook Political Report rates this contest Lean Republican on November 2, 2026.
THE FEATURE TO WATCH WHEN RETURNS ARRIVE
New York has a closely watched Senate-free House battlefield including NY-17.
Keep this dated pre-election record beside the official count, the published candidate filings and the state election office. Additional canvass and certification developments will become part of the post-election archive.
THE 68-RACE WATCHLIST / NOVEMBER 3
RACE 11 / OH-10
Latest verified dossier note: November 2. Election Day count to follow.
COOK RACE CLASSIFICATION / NOVEMBER 2
LEAN REPUBLICAN
DISTRICT / INCUMBENT OR OPEN SEAT
OH-10. Mike Turner. Cook Political Report rates this contest Lean Republican on November 2, 2026.
THE FEATURE TO WATCH WHEN RETURNS ARRIVE
Ohio has active Senate and governor races in addition to multiple House seats under scrutiny.
Keep this dated pre-election record beside the official count, the published candidate filings and the state election office. Additional canvass and certification developments will become part of the post-election archive.
THE 68-RACE WATCHLIST / NOVEMBER 3
RACE 12 / OH-15
Latest verified dossier note: November 2. Election Day count to follow.
COOK RACE CLASSIFICATION / NOVEMBER 2
LEAN REPUBLICAN
DISTRICT / INCUMBENT OR OPEN SEAT
OH-15. Mike Carey. Cook Political Report rates this contest Lean Republican on November 2, 2026.
THE FEATURE TO WATCH WHEN RETURNS ARRIVE
Ohio has active Senate and governor races in addition to multiple House seats under scrutiny.
Keep this dated pre-election record beside the official count, the published candidate filings and the state election office. Additional canvass and certification developments will become part of the post-election archive.
THE 68-RACE WATCHLIST / NOVEMBER 3
RACE 13 / TX-23
Latest verified dossier note: November 2. Election Day count to follow.
COOK RACE CLASSIFICATION / NOVEMBER 2
LEAN REPUBLICAN
DISTRICT / INCUMBENT OR OPEN SEAT
TX-23. Vacant seat. Cook Political Report rates this contest Lean Republican on November 2, 2026.
THE FEATURE TO WATCH WHEN RETURNS ARRIVE
Texas has the largest early vote in the Nov 2 snapshot and contested Senate and governor races.
Keep this dated pre-election record beside the official count, the published candidate filings and the state election office. Additional canvass and certification developments will become part of the post-election archive.
THE 68-RACE WATCHLIST / NOVEMBER 3
RACE 14 / WI-01
Latest verified dossier note: November 2. Election Day count to follow.
COOK RACE CLASSIFICATION / NOVEMBER 2
LEAN REPUBLICAN
DISTRICT / INCUMBENT OR OPEN SEAT
WI-01. Bryan Steil. Cook Political Report rates this contest Lean Republican on November 2, 2026.
THE FEATURE TO WATCH WHEN RETURNS ARRIVE
Wisconsin early participation is running above 2022 pace according to the November 2 tracker.
Keep this dated pre-election record beside the official count, the published candidate filings and the state election office. Additional canvass and certification developments will become part of the post-election archive.
THE 68-RACE WATCHLIST / NOVEMBER 3
RACE 15 / AZ-01
Latest verified dossier note: November 2. Election Day count to follow.
COOK RACE CLASSIFICATION / NOVEMBER 2
LEAN DEMOCRATIC
DISTRICT / INCUMBENT OR OPEN SEAT
AZ-01. Open seat (David Schweikert). Cook Political Report rates this contest Lean Democratic on November 2, 2026.
THE FEATURE TO WATCH WHEN RETURNS ARRIVE
Arizona relies heavily on mail ballot returns. Distinct batches may enter the count over several days.
Keep this dated pre-election record beside the official count, the published candidate filings and the state election office. Additional canvass and certification developments will become part of the post-election archive.
THE 68-RACE WATCHLIST / NOVEMBER 3
RACE 16 / AZ-06
Latest verified dossier note: November 2. Election Day count to follow.
COOK RACE CLASSIFICATION / NOVEMBER 2
LEAN DEMOCRATIC
DISTRICT / INCUMBENT OR OPEN SEAT
AZ-06. Juan Ciscomani. Cook Political Report rates this contest Lean Democratic on November 2, 2026.
THE FEATURE TO WATCH WHEN RETURNS ARRIVE
Arizona relies heavily on mail ballot returns. Distinct batches may enter the count over several days.
Keep this dated pre-election record beside the official count, the published candidate filings and the state election office. Additional canvass and certification developments will become part of the post-election archive.
THE 68-RACE WATCHLIST / NOVEMBER 3
RACE 17 / CA-48
Latest verified dossier note: November 2. Election Day count to follow.
COOK RACE CLASSIFICATION / NOVEMBER 2
LEAN DEMOCRATIC
DISTRICT / INCUMBENT OR OPEN SEAT
CA-48. Open seat (Darrell Issa). Cook Political Report rates this contest Lean Democratic on November 2, 2026.
THE FEATURE TO WATCH WHEN RETURNS ARRIVE
California reports more than six million early ballots and has an active federal dispute over ballot segregation.
Keep this dated pre-election record beside the official count, the published candidate filings and the state election office. Additional canvass and certification developments will become part of the post-election archive.
THE 68-RACE WATCHLIST / NOVEMBER 3
RACE 18 / CO-08
Latest verified dossier note: November 2. Election Day count to follow.
COOK RACE CLASSIFICATION / NOVEMBER 2
LEAN DEMOCRATIC
DISTRICT / INCUMBENT OR OPEN SEAT
CO-08. Gabe Evans. Cook Political Report rates this contest Lean Democratic on November 2, 2026.
THE FEATURE TO WATCH WHEN RETURNS ARRIVE
Colorado has multiple House districts on the competitive map, and local ballot-processing updates matter.
Keep this dated pre-election record beside the official count, the published candidate filings and the state election office. Additional canvass and certification developments will become part of the post-election archive.
THE 68-RACE WATCHLIST / NOVEMBER 3
RACE 19 / FL-25
Latest verified dossier note: November 2. Election Day count to follow.
COOK RACE CLASSIFICATION / NOVEMBER 2
LEAN DEMOCRATIC
DISTRICT / INCUMBENT OR OPEN SEAT
FL-25. Jared Moskowitz. Cook Political Report rates this contest Lean Democratic on November 2, 2026.
THE FEATURE TO WATCH WHEN RETURNS ARRIVE
Florida has a substantial in-person early-voting electorate and several competitive districts.
Keep this dated pre-election record beside the official count, the published candidate filings and the state election office. Additional canvass and certification developments will become part of the post-election archive.
THE 68-RACE WATCHLIST / NOVEMBER 3
RACE 20 / IA-01
Latest verified dossier note: November 2. Election Day count to follow.
COOK RACE CLASSIFICATION / NOVEMBER 2
LEAN DEMOCRATIC
DISTRICT / INCUMBENT OR OPEN SEAT
IA-01. Mariannette Miller-Meeks. Cook Political Report rates this contest Lean Democratic on November 2, 2026.
THE FEATURE TO WATCH WHEN RETURNS ARRIVE
Iowa has a closely watched Senate race and three competitive House districts in this Atlas.
Keep this dated pre-election record beside the official count, the published candidate filings and the state election office. Additional canvass and certification developments will become part of the post-election archive.
THE 68-RACE WATCHLIST / NOVEMBER 3
RACE 21 / IA-03
Latest verified dossier note: November 2. Election Day count to follow.
COOK RACE CLASSIFICATION / NOVEMBER 2
LEAN DEMOCRATIC
DISTRICT / INCUMBENT OR OPEN SEAT
IA-03. Zach Nunn. Cook Political Report rates this contest Lean Democratic on November 2, 2026.
THE FEATURE TO WATCH WHEN RETURNS ARRIVE
Iowa has a closely watched Senate race and three competitive House districts in this Atlas.
Keep this dated pre-election record beside the official count, the published candidate filings and the state election office. Additional canvass and certification developments will become part of the post-election archive.
THE 68-RACE WATCHLIST / NOVEMBER 3
RACE 22 / NC-11
Latest verified dossier note: November 2. Election Day count to follow.
COOK RACE CLASSIFICATION / NOVEMBER 2
LEAN DEMOCRATIC
DISTRICT / INCUMBENT OR OPEN SEAT
NC-11. Open seat (Chuck Edwards). Cook Political Report rates this contest Lean Democratic on November 2, 2026.
THE FEATURE TO WATCH WHEN RETURNS ARRIVE
North Carolina has about 2.8 million reported early ballots and a closely watched Senate contest.
Keep this dated pre-election record beside the official count, the published candidate filings and the state election office. Additional canvass and certification developments will become part of the post-election archive.
THE 68-RACE WATCHLIST / NOVEMBER 3
RACE 23 / NJ-07
Latest verified dossier note: November 2. Election Day count to follow.
COOK RACE CLASSIFICATION / NOVEMBER 2
LEAN DEMOCRATIC
DISTRICT / INCUMBENT OR OPEN SEAT
NJ-07. Tom Kean Jr.. Cook Political Report rates this contest Lean Democratic on November 2, 2026.
THE FEATURE TO WATCH WHEN RETURNS ARRIVE
New Jersey House competitiveness intersects with suburban voter concerns over household costs.
Keep this dated pre-election record beside the official count, the published candidate filings and the state election office. Additional canvass and certification developments will become part of the post-election archive.
THE 68-RACE WATCHLIST / NOVEMBER 3
RACE 24 / NM-02
Latest verified dossier note: November 2. Election Day count to follow.
COOK RACE CLASSIFICATION / NOVEMBER 2
LEAN DEMOCRATIC
DISTRICT / INCUMBENT OR OPEN SEAT
NM-02. Gabe Vasquez. Cook Political Report rates this contest Lean Democratic on November 2, 2026.
THE FEATURE TO WATCH WHEN RETURNS ARRIVE
New Mexico has a closely watched second district; its incumbent and challenger must be evaluated locally.
Keep this dated pre-election record beside the official count, the published candidate filings and the state election office. Additional canvass and certification developments will become part of the post-election archive.
THE 68-RACE WATCHLIST / NOVEMBER 3
RACE 25 / PA-07
Latest verified dossier note: November 2. Election Day count to follow.
COOK RACE CLASSIFICATION / NOVEMBER 2
LEAN DEMOCRATIC
DISTRICT / INCUMBENT OR OPEN SEAT
PA-07. Ryan Mackenzie. Cook Political Report rates this contest Lean Democratic on November 2, 2026.
THE FEATURE TO WATCH WHEN RETURNS ARRIVE
Muhlenberg October survey: Bob Brooks 49%, Ryan Mackenzie 43%. Pennsylvania has several competitive House districts, including PA-01, PA-07, PA-08 and PA-10.
Keep this dated pre-election record beside the official count, the published candidate filings and the state election office. Additional canvass and certification developments will become part of the post-election archive.
THE 68-RACE WATCHLIST / NOVEMBER 3
RACE 26 / PA-10
Latest verified dossier note: November 2. Election Day count to follow.
COOK RACE CLASSIFICATION / NOVEMBER 2
LEAN DEMOCRATIC
DISTRICT / INCUMBENT OR OPEN SEAT
PA-10. Scott Perry. Cook Political Report rates this contest Lean Democratic on November 2, 2026.
THE FEATURE TO WATCH WHEN RETURNS ARRIVE
Pennsylvania has several competitive House districts, including PA-01, PA-07, PA-08 and PA-10.
Keep this dated pre-election record beside the official count, the published candidate filings and the state election office. Additional canvass and certification developments will become part of the post-election archive.
THE 68-RACE WATCHLIST / NOVEMBER 3
RACE 27 / TX-34
Latest verified dossier note: November 2. Election Day count to follow.
COOK RACE CLASSIFICATION / NOVEMBER 2
LEAN DEMOCRATIC
DISTRICT / INCUMBENT OR OPEN SEAT
TX-34. Vicente Gonzalez. Cook Political Report rates this contest Lean Democratic on November 2, 2026.
THE FEATURE TO WATCH WHEN RETURNS ARRIVE
Texas has the largest early vote in the Nov 2 snapshot and contested Senate and governor races.
Keep this dated pre-election record beside the official count, the published candidate filings and the state election office. Additional canvass and certification developments will become part of the post-election archive.
THE 68-RACE WATCHLIST / NOVEMBER 3
RACE 28 / VA-02
Latest verified dossier note: November 2. Election Day count to follow.
COOK RACE CLASSIFICATION / NOVEMBER 2
LEAN DEMOCRATIC
DISTRICT / INCUMBENT OR OPEN SEAT
VA-02. Jen Kiggans. Cook Political Report rates this contest Lean Democratic on November 2, 2026.
THE FEATURE TO WATCH WHEN RETURNS ARRIVE
Virginia is reporting high early turnout relative to its comparable 2022 checkpoint.
Keep this dated pre-election record beside the official count, the published candidate filings and the state election office. Additional canvass and certification developments will become part of the post-election archive.
THE 68-RACE WATCHLIST / NOVEMBER 3
RACE 29 / WA-03
Latest verified dossier note: November 2. Election Day count to follow.
COOK RACE CLASSIFICATION / NOVEMBER 2
LEAN DEMOCRATIC
DISTRICT / INCUMBENT OR OPEN SEAT
WA-03. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez. Cook Political Report rates this contest Lean Democratic on November 2, 2026.
THE FEATURE TO WATCH WHEN RETURNS ARRIVE
Washington is overwhelmingly a vote-by-mail state, and ballots may continue through verification after Nov 3.
Keep this dated pre-election record beside the official count, the published candidate filings and the state election office. Additional canvass and certification developments will become part of the post-election archive.
THE 68-RACE WATCHLIST / NOVEMBER 3
RACE 30 / WI-03
Latest verified dossier note: November 2. Election Day count to follow.
COOK RACE CLASSIFICATION / NOVEMBER 2
LEAN DEMOCRATIC
DISTRICT / INCUMBENT OR OPEN SEAT
WI-03. Derrick Van Orden. Cook Political Report rates this contest Lean Democratic on November 2, 2026.
THE FEATURE TO WATCH WHEN RETURNS ARRIVE
Wisconsin early participation is running above 2022 pace according to the November 2 tracker.
Keep this dated pre-election record beside the official count, the published candidate filings and the state election office. Additional canvass and certification developments will become part of the post-election archive.
THE 68-RACE WATCHLIST / NOVEMBER 3
RACE 31 / OH-09
Latest verified dossier note: November 2. Election Day count to follow.
COOK RACE CLASSIFICATION / NOVEMBER 2
LEAN DEMOCRATIC
DISTRICT / INCUMBENT OR OPEN SEAT
OH-09. Marcy Kaptur. Cook Political Report rates this contest Lean Democratic on November 2, 2026.
THE FEATURE TO WATCH WHEN RETURNS ARRIVE
Moved from Toss Up to Lean Democratic in the October 30 Cook ratings. Ohio has active Senate and governor races in addition to multiple House seats under scrutiny.
Keep this dated pre-election record beside the official count, the published candidate filings and the state election office. Additional canvass and certification developments will become part of the post-election archive.
THE 68-RACE WATCHLIST / NOVEMBER 3
RACE 32 / PA-08
Latest verified dossier note: November 2. Election Day count to follow.
COOK RACE CLASSIFICATION / NOVEMBER 2
LEAN DEMOCRATIC
DISTRICT / INCUMBENT OR OPEN SEAT
PA-08. Rob Bresnahan. Cook Political Report rates this contest Lean Democratic on November 2, 2026.
THE FEATURE TO WATCH WHEN RETURNS ARRIVE
Moved from Toss Up to Lean Democratic in the October 30 Cook ratings. Pennsylvania has several competitive House districts, including PA-01, PA-07, PA-08 and PA-10.
Keep this dated pre-election record beside the official count, the published candidate filings and the state election office. Additional canvass and certification developments will become part of the post-election archive.
THE 68-RACE WATCHLIST / NOVEMBER 3
RACE 33 / CA-13
Latest verified dossier note: November 2. Election Day count to follow.
COOK RACE CLASSIFICATION / NOVEMBER 2
LIKELY DEMOCRATIC
DISTRICT / INCUMBENT OR OPEN SEAT
CA-13. Adam Gray. Cook Political Report rates this contest Likely Democratic on November 2, 2026.
THE FEATURE TO WATCH WHEN RETURNS ARRIVE
California reports more than six million early ballots and has an active federal dispute over ballot segregation.
Keep this dated pre-election record beside the official count, the published candidate filings and the state election office. Additional canvass and certification developments will become part of the post-election archive.
THE 68-RACE WATCHLIST / NOVEMBER 3
RACE 34 / CA-45
Latest verified dossier note: November 2. Election Day count to follow.
COOK RACE CLASSIFICATION / NOVEMBER 2
LIKELY DEMOCRATIC
DISTRICT / INCUMBENT OR OPEN SEAT
CA-45. Derek Tran. Cook Political Report rates this contest Likely Democratic on November 2, 2026.
THE FEATURE TO WATCH WHEN RETURNS ARRIVE
California reports more than six million early ballots and has an active federal dispute over ballot segregation.
Keep this dated pre-election record beside the official count, the published candidate filings and the state election office. Additional canvass and certification developments will become part of the post-election archive.
THE 68-RACE WATCHLIST / NOVEMBER 3
RACE 35 / NE-02
Latest verified dossier note: November 2. Election Day count to follow.
COOK RACE CLASSIFICATION / NOVEMBER 2
LIKELY DEMOCRATIC
DISTRICT / INCUMBENT OR OPEN SEAT
NE-02. Open seat (Don Bacon). Cook Political Report rates this contest Likely Democratic on November 2, 2026.
THE FEATURE TO WATCH WHEN RETURNS ARRIVE
Nebraska has an important Senate contest between Pete Ricketts and independent Dan Osborn, plus NE-02.
Keep this dated pre-election record beside the official count, the published candidate filings and the state election office. Additional canvass and certification developments will become part of the post-election archive.
THE 68-RACE WATCHLIST / NOVEMBER 3
RACE 36 / CO-05
Latest verified dossier note: November 2. Election Day count to follow.
COOK RACE CLASSIFICATION / NOVEMBER 2
TOSS UP
DISTRICT / INCUMBENT OR OPEN SEAT
CO-05. Jeff Crank. Cook Political Report rates this contest Toss Up on November 2, 2026.
THE FEATURE TO WATCH WHEN RETURNS ARRIVE
Moved into Toss Up from Lean Republican in the October 30 Cook ratings. Colorado has multiple House districts on the competitive map, and local ballot-processing updates matter.
Keep this dated pre-election record beside the official count, the published candidate filings and the state election office. Additional canvass and certification developments will become part of the post-election archive.
THE 68-RACE WATCHLIST / NOVEMBER 3
RACE 37 / PA-01
Latest verified dossier note: November 2. Election Day count to follow.
COOK RACE CLASSIFICATION / NOVEMBER 2
TOSS UP
DISTRICT / INCUMBENT OR OPEN SEAT
PA-01. Brian Fitzpatrick. Cook Political Report rates this contest Toss Up on November 2, 2026.
THE FEATURE TO WATCH WHEN RETURNS ARRIVE
Moved into Toss Up from Lean Republican in the October 30 Cook ratings. Pennsylvania has several competitive House districts, including PA-01, PA-07, PA-08 and PA-10.
Keep this dated pre-election record beside the official count, the published candidate filings and the state election office. Additional canvass and certification developments will become part of the post-election archive.
THE 68-RACE WATCHLIST / NOVEMBER 3
RACE 38 / SC-01
Latest verified dossier note: November 2. Election Day count to follow.
COOK RACE CLASSIFICATION / NOVEMBER 2
TOSS UP
DISTRICT / INCUMBENT OR OPEN SEAT
SC-01. Open seat (Nancy Mace). Cook Political Report rates this contest Toss Up on November 2, 2026.
THE FEATURE TO WATCH WHEN RETURNS ARRIVE
Moved into Toss Up from Lean Republican in the October 30 Cook ratings. South Carolina has a competitive Senate race and the open SC-01 House district.
Keep this dated pre-election record beside the official count, the published candidate filings and the state election office. Additional canvass and certification developments will become part of the post-election archive.
THE 68-RACE WATCHLIST / NOVEMBER 3
RACE 39 / CA-22
Latest verified dossier note: November 2. Election Day count to follow.
COOK RACE CLASSIFICATION / NOVEMBER 2
TOSS UP
DISTRICT / INCUMBENT OR OPEN SEAT
CA-22. David Valadao. Cook Political Report rates this contest Toss Up on November 2, 2026.
THE FEATURE TO WATCH WHEN RETURNS ARRIVE
The U.S. Supreme Court emergency ruling did not order ballots segregated; see the court record. California reports more than six million early ballots and has an active federal dispute over ballot segregation.
Keep this dated pre-election record beside the official count, the published candidate filings and the state election office. Additional canvass and certification developments will become part of the post-election archive.
THE 68-RACE WATCHLIST / NOVEMBER 3
RACE 40 / FL-14
Latest verified dossier note: November 2. Election Day count to follow.
COOK RACE CLASSIFICATION / NOVEMBER 2
TOSS UP
DISTRICT / INCUMBENT OR OPEN SEAT
FL-14. Kathy Castor. Cook Political Report rates this contest Toss Up on November 2, 2026.
THE FEATURE TO WATCH WHEN RETURNS ARRIVE
Florida has a substantial in-person early-voting electorate and several competitive districts.
Keep this dated pre-election record beside the official count, the published candidate filings and the state election office. Additional canvass and certification developments will become part of the post-election archive.
THE 68-RACE WATCHLIST / NOVEMBER 3
RACE 41 / FL-22
Latest verified dossier note: November 2. Election Day count to follow.
COOK RACE CLASSIFICATION / NOVEMBER 2
TOSS UP
DISTRICT / INCUMBENT OR OPEN SEAT
FL-22. Open seat (Lois Frankel). Cook Political Report rates this contest Toss Up on November 2, 2026.
THE FEATURE TO WATCH WHEN RETURNS ARRIVE
Florida has a substantial in-person early-voting electorate and several competitive districts.
Keep this dated pre-election record beside the official count, the published candidate filings and the state election office. Additional canvass and certification developments will become part of the post-election archive.
THE 68-RACE WATCHLIST / NOVEMBER 3
RACE 42 / IA-02
Latest verified dossier note: November 2. Election Day count to follow.
COOK RACE CLASSIFICATION / NOVEMBER 2
TOSS UP
DISTRICT / INCUMBENT OR OPEN SEAT
IA-02. Open seat (Ashley Hinson). Cook Political Report rates this contest Toss Up on November 2, 2026.
THE FEATURE TO WATCH WHEN RETURNS ARRIVE
Open seat as Ashley Hinson campaigns for the U.S. Senate. Iowa has a closely watched Senate race and three competitive House districts in this Atlas.
Keep this dated pre-election record beside the official count, the published candidate filings and the state election office. Additional canvass and certification developments will become part of the post-election archive.
THE 68-RACE WATCHLIST / NOVEMBER 3
RACE 43 / KY-06
Latest verified dossier note: November 2. Election Day count to follow.
COOK RACE CLASSIFICATION / NOVEMBER 2
TOSS UP
DISTRICT / INCUMBENT OR OPEN SEAT
KY-06. Open seat (Andy Barr). Cook Political Report rates this contest Toss Up on November 2, 2026.
THE FEATURE TO WATCH WHEN RETURNS ARRIVE
Kentucky has an open House district on the Toss Up list, requiring close attention to local participation.
Keep this dated pre-election record beside the official count, the published candidate filings and the state election office. Additional canvass and certification developments will become part of the post-election archive.
THE 68-RACE WATCHLIST / NOVEMBER 3
RACE 44 / MI-04
Latest verified dossier note: November 2. Election Day count to follow.
COOK RACE CLASSIFICATION / NOVEMBER 2
TOSS UP
DISTRICT / INCUMBENT OR OPEN SEAT
MI-04. Bill Huizenga. Cook Political Report rates this contest Toss Up on November 2, 2026.
THE FEATURE TO WATCH WHEN RETURNS ARRIVE
Michigan combines Senate campaign turbulence with several House Toss Ups.
Keep this dated pre-election record beside the official count, the published candidate filings and the state election office. Additional canvass and certification developments will become part of the post-election archive.
THE 68-RACE WATCHLIST / NOVEMBER 3
RACE 45 / MI-07
Latest verified dossier note: November 2. Election Day count to follow.
COOK RACE CLASSIFICATION / NOVEMBER 2
TOSS UP
DISTRICT / INCUMBENT OR OPEN SEAT
MI-07. Tom Barrett. Cook Political Report rates this contest Toss Up on November 2, 2026.
THE FEATURE TO WATCH WHEN RETURNS ARRIVE
Tom Barrett seeks re-election in a Toss Up district amid an intense Senate campaign. Michigan combines Senate campaign turbulence with several House Toss Ups.
Keep this dated pre-election record beside the official count, the published candidate filings and the state election office. Additional canvass and certification developments will become part of the post-election archive.
THE 68-RACE WATCHLIST / NOVEMBER 3
RACE 46 / MI-10
Latest verified dossier note: November 2. Election Day count to follow.
COOK RACE CLASSIFICATION / NOVEMBER 2
TOSS UP
DISTRICT / INCUMBENT OR OPEN SEAT
MI-10. Open seat (John James). Cook Political Report rates this contest Toss Up on November 2, 2026.
THE FEATURE TO WATCH WHEN RETURNS ARRIVE
Michigan combines Senate campaign turbulence with several House Toss Ups.
Keep this dated pre-election record beside the official count, the published candidate filings and the state election office. Additional canvass and certification developments will become part of the post-election archive.
THE 68-RACE WATCHLIST / NOVEMBER 3
RACE 47 / MT-01
Latest verified dossier note: November 2. Election Day count to follow.
COOK RACE CLASSIFICATION / NOVEMBER 2
TOSS UP
DISTRICT / INCUMBENT OR OPEN SEAT
MT-01. Open seat (Ryan Zinke). Cook Political Report rates this contest Toss Up on November 2, 2026.
THE FEATURE TO WATCH WHEN RETURNS ARRIVE
Montana has an open House district in the national Toss Up category.
Keep this dated pre-election record beside the official count, the published candidate filings and the state election office. Additional canvass and certification developments will become part of the post-election archive.
THE 68-RACE WATCHLIST / NOVEMBER 3
RACE 48 / NC-01
Latest verified dossier note: November 2. Election Day count to follow.
COOK RACE CLASSIFICATION / NOVEMBER 2
TOSS UP
DISTRICT / INCUMBENT OR OPEN SEAT
NC-01. Don Davis. Cook Political Report rates this contest Toss Up on November 2, 2026.
THE FEATURE TO WATCH WHEN RETURNS ARRIVE
North Carolina has about 2.8 million reported early ballots and a closely watched Senate contest.
Keep this dated pre-election record beside the official count, the published candidate filings and the state election office. Additional canvass and certification developments will become part of the post-election archive.
THE 68-RACE WATCHLIST / NOVEMBER 3
RACE 49 / NY-17
Latest verified dossier note: November 2. Election Day count to follow.
COOK RACE CLASSIFICATION / NOVEMBER 2
TOSS UP
DISTRICT / INCUMBENT OR OPEN SEAT
NY-17. Mike Lawler. Cook Political Report rates this contest Toss Up on November 2, 2026.
THE FEATURE TO WATCH WHEN RETURNS ARRIVE
Mike Lawler holds a district rated Toss Up by Cook on November 2. New York has a closely watched Senate-free House battlefield including NY-17.
Keep this dated pre-election record beside the official count, the published candidate filings and the state election office. Additional canvass and certification developments will become part of the post-election archive.
THE 68-RACE WATCHLIST / NOVEMBER 3
RACE 50 / OH-07
Latest verified dossier note: November 2. Election Day count to follow.
COOK RACE CLASSIFICATION / NOVEMBER 2
TOSS UP
DISTRICT / INCUMBENT OR OPEN SEAT
OH-07. Max Miller. Cook Political Report rates this contest Toss Up on November 2, 2026.
THE FEATURE TO WATCH WHEN RETURNS ARRIVE
Ohio has active Senate and governor races in addition to multiple House seats under scrutiny.
Keep this dated pre-election record beside the official count, the published candidate filings and the state election office. Additional canvass and certification developments will become part of the post-election archive.
THE 68-RACE WATCHLIST / NOVEMBER 3
RACE 51 / TX-35
Latest verified dossier note: November 2. Election Day count to follow.
COOK RACE CLASSIFICATION / NOVEMBER 2
TOSS UP
DISTRICT / INCUMBENT OR OPEN SEAT
TX-35. Open seat (Greg Casar). Cook Political Report rates this contest Toss Up on November 2, 2026.
THE FEATURE TO WATCH WHEN RETURNS ARRIVE
Texas has the largest early vote in the Nov 2 snapshot and contested Senate and governor races.
Keep this dated pre-election record beside the official count, the published candidate filings and the state election office. Additional canvass and certification developments will become part of the post-election archive.
THE 68-RACE WATCHLIST / NOVEMBER 3
RACE 52 / TX-15
Latest verified dossier note: November 2. Election Day count to follow.
COOK RACE CLASSIFICATION / NOVEMBER 2
TOSS UP
DISTRICT / INCUMBENT OR OPEN SEAT
TX-15. Monica De La Cruz. Cook Political Report rates this contest Toss Up on November 2, 2026.
THE FEATURE TO WATCH WHEN RETURNS ARRIVE
Monica De La Cruz holds a Toss Up House district as Texas Senate and governor contests draw attention. Texas has the largest early vote in the Nov 2 snapshot and contested Senate and governor races.
Keep this dated pre-election record beside the official count, the published candidate filings and the state election office. Additional canvass and certification developments will become part of the post-election archive.
THE 68-RACE WATCHLIST / NOVEMBER 3
RACE 53 / VA-01
Latest verified dossier note: November 2. Election Day count to follow.
COOK RACE CLASSIFICATION / NOVEMBER 2
TOSS UP
DISTRICT / INCUMBENT OR OPEN SEAT
VA-01. Rob Wittman. Cook Political Report rates this contest Toss Up on November 2, 2026.
THE FEATURE TO WATCH WHEN RETURNS ARRIVE
Virginia is reporting high early turnout relative to its comparable 2022 checkpoint.
Keep this dated pre-election record beside the official count, the published candidate filings and the state election office. Additional canvass and certification developments will become part of the post-election archive.
THE 68-RACE WATCHLIST / NOVEMBER 3
RACE 54 / TX SENATE
Latest verified dossier note: November 2. Election Day count to follow.
STATEWIDE SENATE OR GOVERNOR CONTEST
STATEWIDE
NAMED CANDIDATES AND PRE-ELECTION RECORD
James Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R). Siena Nov 1: Talarico 50%, Paxton 43%. AtlasIntel: 52%-46%; Trafalgar: 48%-48%.
THE FEATURE TO WATCH WHEN RETURNS ARRIVE
The state is home to one of the largest early votes, and the pollsters do not all agree.
Keep this dated pre-election record beside the official count, the published candidate filings and the state election office. Additional canvass and certification developments will become part of the post-election archive.
ORIGINAL POLL / COURT RECORD · FEC / CANDIDATES · ELECTION OFFICES
THE 68-RACE WATCHLIST / NOVEMBER 3
RACE 55 / ME SENATE
Latest verified dossier note: November 2. Election Day count to follow.
STATEWIDE SENATE OR GOVERNOR CONTEST
STATEWIDE
NAMED CANDIDATES AND PRE-ELECTION RECORD
Troy Jackson (D) / Susan Collins (R). Siena Nov 1: Jackson 51%-45%; UNH Oct 31: Jackson 54%-45%.
THE FEATURE TO WATCH WHEN RETURNS ARRIVE
The independent UNH poll also found voters more likely to expect Collins to win.
Keep this dated pre-election record beside the official count, the published candidate filings and the state election office. Additional canvass and certification developments will become part of the post-election archive.
ORIGINAL POLL / COURT RECORD · FEC / CANDIDATES · ELECTION OFFICES
THE 68-RACE WATCHLIST / NOVEMBER 3
RACE 56 / MI SENATE
Latest verified dossier note: November 2. Election Day count to follow.
STATEWIDE SENATE OR GOVERNOR CONTEST
STATEWIDE
NAMED CANDIDATES AND PRE-ELECTION RECORD
Abdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R). Siena Nov 1: El-Sayed 53%-42%.
THE FEATURE TO WATCH WHEN RETURNS ARRIVE
Haley Stevens endorsed Rogers after the Democratic primary. It is a substantial late political rupture.
Keep this dated pre-election record beside the official count, the published candidate filings and the state election office. Additional canvass and certification developments will become part of the post-election archive.
ORIGINAL POLL / COURT RECORD · FEC / CANDIDATES · ELECTION OFFICES
THE 68-RACE WATCHLIST / NOVEMBER 3
RACE 57 / NH SENATE
Latest verified dossier note: November 2. Election Day count to follow.
STATEWIDE SENATE OR GOVERNOR CONTEST
STATEWIDE
NAMED CANDIDATES AND PRE-ELECTION RECORD
Chris Pappas (D) / John E. Sununu (R). Latest published polls available through the Senate polling index.
THE FEATURE TO WATCH WHEN RETURNS ARRIVE
The retiring/open-seat context and campaign turnout are central to the New Hampshire count.
Keep this dated pre-election record beside the official count, the published candidate filings and the state election office. Additional canvass and certification developments will become part of the post-election archive.
ORIGINAL POLL / COURT RECORD · FEC / CANDIDATES · ELECTION OFFICES
THE 68-RACE WATCHLIST / NOVEMBER 3
RACE 58 / IA SENATE
Latest verified dossier note: November 2. Election Day count to follow.
STATEWIDE SENATE OR GOVERNOR CONTEST
STATEWIDE
NAMED CANDIDATES AND PRE-ELECTION RECORD
Josh Turek (D) / Ashley Hinson (R). Siena Nov 1: Turek 48%-47%.
THE FEATURE TO WATCH WHEN RETURNS ARRIVE
A one-point spread makes Iowa a key election-night comparison between late surveys and the count.
Keep this dated pre-election record beside the official count, the published candidate filings and the state election office. Additional canvass and certification developments will become part of the post-election archive.
ORIGINAL POLL / COURT RECORD · FEC / CANDIDATES · ELECTION OFFICES
THE 68-RACE WATCHLIST / NOVEMBER 3
RACE 59 / KS SENATE
Latest verified dossier note: November 2. Election Day count to follow.
STATEWIDE SENATE OR GOVERNOR CONTEST
STATEWIDE
NAMED CANDIDATES AND PRE-ELECTION RECORD
Adam Hamilton (D) / Roger Marshall (R). Siena Nov 1: Hamilton 49%, Marshall 44%, David Graham (L) 4%.
THE FEATURE TO WATCH WHEN RETURNS ARRIVE
Trump visited Kansas on November 1 as the Senate race narrowed in public polling.
Keep this dated pre-election record beside the official count, the published candidate filings and the state election office. Additional canvass and certification developments will become part of the post-election archive.
ORIGINAL POLL / COURT RECORD · FEC / CANDIDATES · ELECTION OFFICES
THE 68-RACE WATCHLIST / NOVEMBER 3
RACE 60 / OH SENATE
Latest verified dossier note: November 2. Election Day count to follow.
STATEWIDE SENATE OR GOVERNOR CONTEST
STATEWIDE
NAMED CANDIDATES AND PRE-ELECTION RECORD
Sherrod Brown (D) / Jon Husted (R). Siena Nov 1: Brown 49%-44%.
THE FEATURE TO WATCH WHEN RETURNS ARRIVE
Ohio is a Senate and governor battleground, and Vice President Vance campaigned there Monday.
Keep this dated pre-election record beside the official count, the published candidate filings and the state election office. Additional canvass and certification developments will become part of the post-election archive.
ORIGINAL POLL / COURT RECORD · FEC / CANDIDATES · ELECTION OFFICES
THE 68-RACE WATCHLIST / NOVEMBER 3
RACE 61 / NC SENATE
Latest verified dossier note: November 2. Election Day count to follow.
STATEWIDE SENATE OR GOVERNOR CONTEST
STATEWIDE
NAMED CANDIDATES AND PRE-ELECTION RECORD
Roy Cooper (D) / Michael Whatley (R). East Carolina University, Oct 26-29: Cooper 54%-45%.
THE FEATURE TO WATCH WHEN RETURNS ARRIVE
North Carolina reports more than 2.8 million early ballots in the November 2 tracker.
Keep this dated pre-election record beside the official count, the published candidate filings and the state election office. Additional canvass and certification developments will become part of the post-election archive.
ORIGINAL POLL / COURT RECORD · FEC / CANDIDATES · ELECTION OFFICES
THE 68-RACE WATCHLIST / NOVEMBER 3
RACE 62 / GA SENATE
Latest verified dossier note: November 2. Election Day count to follow.
STATEWIDE SENATE OR GOVERNOR CONTEST
STATEWIDE
NAMED CANDIDATES AND PRE-ELECTION RECORD
Jon Ossoff (D) / Mike Collins (R). Check the final pollster releases and the election canvassing timeline.
THE FEATURE TO WATCH WHEN RETURNS ARRIVE
Georgia drew a record early turnout and its Senate seat is closely watched.
Keep this dated pre-election record beside the official count, the published candidate filings and the state election office. Additional canvass and certification developments will become part of the post-election archive.
ORIGINAL POLL / COURT RECORD · FEC / CANDIDATES · ELECTION OFFICES
THE 68-RACE WATCHLIST / NOVEMBER 3
RACE 63 / AK SENATE
Latest verified dossier note: November 2. Election Day count to follow.
STATEWIDE SENATE OR GOVERNOR CONTEST
STATEWIDE
NAMED CANDIDATES AND PRE-ELECTION RECORD
Mary Peltola (D) / Dan S. Sullivan (R). Siena Nov 1: Peltola 48%-46%.
THE FEATURE TO WATCH WHEN RETURNS ARRIVE
Judge Gleason dismissed DOJ suit on November 1; appeal is pending. The ballot uses ranked choice.
Keep this dated pre-election record beside the official count, the published candidate filings and the state election office. Additional canvass and certification developments will become part of the post-election archive.
ORIGINAL POLL / COURT RECORD · FEC / CANDIDATES · ELECTION OFFICES
THE 68-RACE WATCHLIST / NOVEMBER 3
RACE 64 / MN SENATE
Latest verified dossier note: November 2. Election Day count to follow.
STATEWIDE SENATE OR GOVERNOR CONTEST
STATEWIDE
NAMED CANDIDATES AND PRE-ELECTION RECORD
Peggy Flanagan (D) / Michele Tafoya (R). Research Co. Nov 1: Flanagan 48%-43%; other surveys vary.
THE FEATURE TO WATCH WHEN RETURNS ARRIVE
Minnesota combines an active Senate contest with intense national scrutiny of election oversight.
Keep this dated pre-election record beside the official count, the published candidate filings and the state election office. Additional canvass and certification developments will become part of the post-election archive.
ORIGINAL POLL / COURT RECORD · FEC / CANDIDATES · ELECTION OFFICES
THE 68-RACE WATCHLIST / NOVEMBER 3
RACE 65 / SC SENATE
Latest verified dossier note: November 2. Election Day count to follow.
STATEWIDE SENATE OR GOVERNOR CONTEST
STATEWIDE
NAMED CANDIDATES AND PRE-ELECTION RECORD
Annie Andrews (D) / Darline Graham Nordone (R). NYT/Siena Oct 19-26 reported 48%-48%.
THE FEATURE TO WATCH WHEN RETURNS ARRIVE
The state also contains the Toss Up House seat SC-01.
Keep this dated pre-election record beside the official count, the published candidate filings and the state election office. Additional canvass and certification developments will become part of the post-election archive.
ORIGINAL POLL / COURT RECORD · FEC / CANDIDATES · ELECTION OFFICES
THE 68-RACE WATCHLIST / NOVEMBER 3
RACE 66 / FL GOVERNOR
Latest verified dossier note: November 2. Election Day count to follow.
STATEWIDE SENATE OR GOVERNOR CONTEST
STATEWIDE
NAMED CANDIDATES AND PRE-ELECTION RECORD
David Jolly (D) / Byron Donalds (R). InsiderAdvantage Oct 28-29: Donalds 49%, Jolly 45%.
THE FEATURE TO WATCH WHEN RETURNS ARRIVE
Florida reported roughly 5.46 million early ballots in the Nov 2 tracker.
Keep this dated pre-election record beside the official count, the published candidate filings and the state election office. Additional canvass and certification developments will become part of the post-election archive.
ORIGINAL POLL / COURT RECORD · FEC / CANDIDATES · ELECTION OFFICES
THE 68-RACE WATCHLIST / NOVEMBER 3
RACE 67 / NY GOVERNOR
Latest verified dossier note: November 2. Election Day count to follow.
STATEWIDE SENATE OR GOVERNOR CONTEST
STATEWIDE
NAMED CANDIDATES AND PRE-ELECTION RECORD
Kathy Hochul (D) / Bruce Blakeman (R). Check the final statewide pollster releases in the original polling index.
THE FEATURE TO WATCH WHEN RETURNS ARRIVE
More than 1.9 million early ballots appear in the November 2 tracker for New York.
Keep this dated pre-election record beside the official count, the published candidate filings and the state election office. Additional canvass and certification developments will become part of the post-election archive.
ORIGINAL POLL / COURT RECORD · FEC / CANDIDATES · ELECTION OFFICES
THE 68-RACE WATCHLIST / NOVEMBER 3
RACE 68 / TX GOVERNOR
Latest verified dossier note: November 2. Election Day count to follow.
STATEWIDE SENATE OR GOVERNOR CONTEST
STATEWIDE
NAMED CANDIDATES AND PRE-ELECTION RECORD
Gina Hinojosa (D) / Greg Abbott (R). Siena Nov 1: Hinojosa 48%, Abbott 47%.
THE FEATURE TO WATCH WHEN RETURNS ARRIVE
A one-point poll separation makes turnout and final ballots crucial to evaluating this state race.
Keep this dated pre-election record beside the official count, the published candidate filings and the state election office. Additional canvass and certification developments will become part of the post-election archive.
ORIGINAL POLL / COURT RECORD · FEC / CANDIDATES · ELECTION OFFICES
